Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
